by Nancy Drapeau, IPC, VP of Research

Last week I presented insights on the state of the B2B exhibition industry in North America to venue management participants at #VenueConnect2022. Since this association has membership in Canada and Mexico, in addition to the U.S., I reached out to John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, to see if he could provide a seasonal COVID-19 risk assessment for those two countries that I could include in the presentation. Those two charts are provided below. We thank you John! Note, data on the US market was also included. For access to Epistemix’s forecast outlook for the US market, go here.

WHY EPISTEMIX? Epistemix is a highly valued resource to the industry. Using available public health data, they conduct rigorous analysis and modeling that has uncovered seasonal patterns of the presence of COVID-19 in different regions. They monitor trends on an ongoing basis. In the two charts below, the darker the red, the higher the risk of presence of COVID-19. The darker the blue, the lower the risk.

Source: Epistemix

In today’s business environment, CEIR and other industry resources point to an environment where B2B exhibitions and events are happening in North America despite the ongoing presence of COVID-19. Cancellations are ebbing dramatically. In Q1 of this year, CEIR Index results found that only 9.2% of US-based events cancelled. Canada’s market is open for business according to CAEM, with the last group meeting limitations lifted in Ontario in March. The Mexican B2B exhibition industry reopened starting in July 2021, according to AMPROFEC. Businesses and people are getting back to pre-COVID activities. They are moving forward, learning to live with COVID-19. The key is to do so safely. These forecasts help do this.

The two charts above provide invaluable forecasts on the likely prevalence of COVID-19 on a per month basis in the top ranked Canadian and Mexican cities for events, according to the 2015 CEIR Census.

This analysis can help organizers, venue managers, destinations plan forward to run events safely in an environment where COVID-19 remains a factor. At the timing of the writing of this blog, the status of the health crisis is still a pandemic. At an undetermined time in the future, the crisis will be reduced to an endemic level. Though for the next several years thereafter, COVID-19 will still present risks to communities. Print this blog, use the charts below to help your organizations:

• Hold events or sell event space during the months when the seasonal pattern for COVID-19 risk is apt to be low.
• And if the best time to run events, or to sell space, is during a high-risk month, create and implement safety plans that assure event participants have a successful and safe experience at an event and that staff working events remain safe and healthy as well.

Erin Zwick, Director of Health & Disease Modeling Epistemic also provided a Q2 Forecast for the US market that published on the CEIR Blog in March. Those interested in learning more about Epistemx analytic services go to https://www.epistemix.com/events-solution?hsLang=en