Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics Company explored the current economy’s influence on business-to-business (B2B) exhibitions and provided forecasts for future impacts in his insightful presentation, Navigating the Global Landscape: Insights on Economy, Geopolitics and Exhibitions，发表于 2024 年 CEIR 预测会议 于9月12日至13日举行。
Referencing data from CEIR’s 2024 Index Report, Sacks noted that the exhibition industry is charting a remarkable recovery path, displaying extraordinary resilience in the post-pandemic landscape. According to detailed economic analysis, the industry has currently recovered to 91% of its 2019 pre-pandemic levels, with a trajectory that suggests not just recovery, but potential growth and transformation in the coming years.
Economic Landscape and Recovery Dynamics
The United States economy presents a complex yet promising picture. Real GDP is projected to grow 2.6% in 2024, with a slight deceleration to 1.9% in 2025 – a scenario economists are describing as a potential “soft landing.” This economic moderation is accompanied by significant wage growth, with private sector wages increasing 23% since February 2020, outpacing consumer price increases of 18%.
The Federal Reserve is expected to play a crucial role in economic stabilization, with plans to lower interest rates. This monetary strategy comes after an unprecedented period of rapid interest rate increases – the fastest in historical context. Remarkably, contrary to most economists’ predictions, these aggressive rate hikes have not induced a recession.
Industry-Specific Recovery Trends
The exhibition industry’s recovery is nuanced and sector dependent. By 2024, three key sectors – 运输, Finance/Legal/Real Estate 和 教育 – are projected to fully recover. By 2026, analysts expect 11 out of 14 tracked sectors to completely restore their pre-pandemic performance, with Consumer Goods, Raw Materials 和 Sporting Goods likely to lag behind.
Transformation of Business Travel and Networking
The pandemic has fundamentally altered workplace dynamics, with remote work now comprising approximately 25% of workdays – a dramatic increase from just 5% pre-pandemic. This structural shift has not diminished the need for in-person interactions. Remarkably, 58% of remote workers report needing to meet colleagues in person at least quarterly, often through conferences, conventions, and exhibitions.
International travel recovery presents a mixed landscape. Markets like Canada have reached 95% of 2019 travel levels, while Asian markets remain approximately 20% below pre-pandemic performance. Significant challenges persist, including visa processing bottlenecks and limited flight availability, particularly in regions like China.
The international travel spending pattern has also reversed dramatically. In 2019, international travelers to the U.S. spent $22 billion more than U.S. residents spent abroad. Currently, the U.S. is experiencing a travel trade deficit of about $20 billion – a substantial shift that impacts hotel demand and exhibition participation.
Corporate and Meeting Planner Sentiment
Corporate profits remain a strong indicator of future exhibition participation. With profit margins expected to hover around 10%, companies continue to view trade show participation as strategic investments for future growth. Meeting planner sentiment has improved significantly, with only 11% expressing pessimism about future meetings – the lowest percentage in recent years.
Projected Growth and Recovery Trajectory
The exhibition industry is projected to grow 8.5% year-over-year in 2024, with more modest growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. Net square feet sold is expected to recover from 93% to 98% in 2024, with exhibitors reaching nearly 98% recovery and attendees at 95% of pre-pandemic levels.
Broader Economic Considerations
The upcoming election and potential policy changes introduce additional complexity. Both major political platforms present economic challenges, including potential tariffs and tax increases. However, economists predict limited immediate impact, with more significant economic implications potentially emerging in 2026 and 2027.
What’s Next?
The exhibition industry stands at a fascinating inflection point. While the recovery path is not linear and challenges remain, the underlying economic fundamentals, corporate strategies, and human need for face-to-face interactions suggest a robust and adaptive future. The industry is not just recovering but potentially reimagining itself for a new economic and technological landscape.
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